Supply Chain Risks Analysis And Procurement Actions in 2026

GPV issued a report in Feb 2026 of global supply chian update. Overall, this report presents a clear and realistic assessment of the current supply chain risks, particularly around memory components.

From the highlights, the most critical takeaway is the continued tightening of DRAM and NAND supply, with extended lead times and ongoing price increases expected, and no significant market relief anticipated before 2028. This signals a prolonged constrained environment rather than a short-term fluctuation. The recommendation to extend order horizons beyond 15–18 months is therefore practical and aligned with the outlook.

The detailed memory section further reinforces the risk level:

• Micron: very tight availability, strong price increases, and AI-driven capacity prioritization.

• Infineon and ISSI: tight but somewhat manageable, though still facing upward pricing pressure and foundry constraints

Strategically, the report appropriately emphasizes:

• Demand alignment and longer visibility

• Monitoring of tariff uncertainty

• Close follow-up on key suppliers (e.g., Nexperia)

Based on the report, I would suggest the following practical supply chain and procurement actions:

1. Strengthen Demand Planning & Forecast Visibility (High Priority)

The report clearly states that the memory situation requires urgent demand alignment and extended visibility, with no market relief expected before 2028.

Actions:

• Align internal demand forecasts across sales, operations, and finance.

• Lock forecast visibility at least 15–18 months ahead (or longer where possible).

• Avoid speculative demand signals; ensure forecast accuracy.

2. Extend Order Horizons & Secure Capacity

With DRAM and NAND supply tightened and continued lead time and price increases expected. early commitment is critical.

Actions:

• Place long-term orders and consider LTAs for critical memory components.

• Negotiate capacity reservations with key suppliers and distributors.

• Review buffer stock strategy for high-risk memory parts.

3. Focus on High-Risk Memory Categories

Several suppliers show tight or constrained situations:

• Macronix (NOR Flash) – Tight, upward pricing.

• Winbond (NOR / specialty DRAM) – Tight, moderate increase.

• STMicroelectronics (embedded/automotive memory) – Constrained, firm pricing.

• Microchip (specialty memory) – Constrained; capacity shifts impacting supply.

Actions:

• Identify products exposed to these suppliers.

• Qualify second sources where technically possible.

• Prioritize allocation for strategic or high-margin customers.

4. Prepare for Price Pressure

The report highlights significant lead times and price increases through 2026

Actions:

• Update cost forecasts and project budgets accordingly.

• Review customer contracts for price adjustment clauses.

• Implement structured cost pass-through where commercially feasible.

5. Monitor Adjacent Risk Areas

Early tightening is also seen in MLCC and interconnects, and bare board pricing remains under pressure

Actions:

• Conduct exposure mapping beyond memory.

• Pre-book capacity for MLCC and PCB where volumes are predictable.

• Avoid last-minute sourcing in these categories.

6. Strengthen Supplier Governance

The report mentions a dedicated memory task force and close supplier follow-up

Actions:

• Establish regular executive-level supplier reviews.

• Request quarterly capacity outlook updates.

• Monitor geopolitical and tariff developments.

Overall Recommendation

This is not a short-term fluctuation but a structural supply constraint cycle extending to 2028. The most effective strategy is:

Early commitment + long visibility + disciplined demand management + proactive customer communication.

Practical Supply Chain & Procurement Actions.pptx